Risk Disclosure

Staking on outcomes carries real risk. Read this before you deposit, and only stake money you can afford to lose entirely.

You can lose your whole stake

If the side you pick loses, your stake is not returned. There is no partial refund for being close.

The house has an edge

Every quote adds a 2.5% spread to the live Polymarket odds. Over many stakes, that spread works against you.

Odds are not certainties

A price reflects what other people expect to happen. A market at 90% still loses one time in ten, on average.

Resolution can take time or go unexpectedly

Markets settle only when Polymarket reports a final result, which can be delayed by disputes. Results that are split or unclear void the market, and stakes are refunded rather than paid out.

Blockchain and stablecoin risk

Deposits move on Robinhood Chain. Transactions sent to the wrong address cannot be reversed, network problems can delay deposits, and USDG depends on its issuer to keep its value.

Service risk

Poly can have outages, bugs, or pauses. Stakes may be rejected when prices can't be verified or move too far, and markets can be paused.

Legal risk

Rules on prediction markets differ between places and can change. It is your responsibility to make sure you are allowed to take part.